Did Bangor Infect KISS? What a rock concert shows us about the COVID pandemic. - Bangor Daily News

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The BDN Opinion section operates independently and does not set newsroom policies or contribute to reporting or editing articles elsewhere in the newspaper or on bangordailynews.com.

Michael J. Socolow is an associate professor in the Department of Communication and Journalism at the University of Maine. His views are his own and do not represent those of the university.

KISS, the legendary rock band, is facing a new challenge. Two members — Paul Stanley and Gene Simmons — recently tested positive for COVID-19, causing a spate of cancellations on their current “End of the Road” final tour.

On Aug. 19, a few days before Stanley disclosed his diagnosis, the band rocked Bangor. The timing of their show wasn’t propitious, as Penobscot County was then, and is now, the epicenter of Maine’s current delta outbreak. While they played just downriver from Northern Light Eastern Maine Medical Center, the hospital was filling up with COVID patients.

Waterfront Concerts, the outdoor venue’s operator, neither required masks nor proof of vaccination to attend the show. And though the concert was outdoors, fans paid premium prices for access to a crowded, standing-room only area directly in front of the band called “The Pit.”

Which leads to the question: Did Bangor infect KISS?

Any answer must be labelled conjecture. To even explore the question is to delve into the realm of purely circumstantial evidence. But there’s quite a bit, and it’s worth exploring, because Waterfront Concerts has seven concerts scheduled in the next two months, and providing information for those considering attending a concert soon comprises public service.

First: The question of outdoor transmission. When Oregon initiated an outdoors masking mandate, it received significant criticism. Yet evidence is emerging that outdoors transmission — while still very rare — occurs more frequently when people can’t social distance. A recent study about delta breakthrough infections traced an outbreak (with fatal consequences) to an outdoor wedding in Texas where everyone was vaccinated. Because delta is so new, evidence about its transmission outdoors remains scanty; yet outbreaks have already been tied to concerts in Oregon and Michigan where fans were tightly packed together.

The question of outdoor transmission is complicated by myriad factors. For example, sunlight may kill the COVID-virus, so the time of day of any event can be one variable. Others include a venue’s size, and the distance between fans.

Because this question is so complicated, and answers are so difficult to come by, current U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance on outdoor transmission is equivocal. “In general, you do not need to wear a mask in outdoor settings,” it begins, but then it adds a caveat: “In areas with high numbers of COVID-19 cases, consider wearing a mask in crowded outdoor settings and for activities with close contact with others who are not fully vaccinated.” “If you can’t stay at least 6 feet apart from people who don’t live with you, wear your mask” even outdoors, it concludes.

KISS’s statement on Paul Stanley’s diagnosis claimed “everyone is closely following all CDC guidelines” on its tour. Yet this is not entirely accurate. No masks, vaccination status disclosure, or social distancing were required to attend the Bangor concert on Aug. 19. Photos and videos show the CDC’s guidance to wear a mask outdoors if six feet of separation is impossible was ignored.

There’s no question the band members interacted with thousands of people in the period between the Bangor show and their COVID diagnoses. They’re on tour, and they played one concert in Toledo, Ohio, and another in Atlantic City, New Jersey, between Bangor and the tour’s suspension. Yet their touring pace slowed after Bangor when two shows in Connecticut were postponed due to Hurricane Henri, and a concert in Pennsylvania was called off. The band’s Toledo concert started at 8p.m. the night before Stanley announced his symptomatic illness, so Toledo can be ruled out. If Stanley was infected at a concert, it probably occurred in Bangor on Aug. 19 or in Atlantic City on Aug. 21.

Let’s consider Bangor. It’s in Penobscot County, where the delta wave — for reasons not entirely clear — is cresting far worse than elsewhere in Maine. Penobscot County led Maine in infections over the weeks that include the concert date. Second-place in that period was the far-more populous York County, and third was Cumberland County.

Conjecture offered for why this outbreak is hitting Bangor so hard include it’s slightly below-average vaccination rate (for the state of Maine) and that it serves as a medical center for several surrounding areas.

To recap: a legendary rock band played to cheering and yelling fans packed tightly together directly in front of them, and neither masks nor disclosure of vaccination status were required. The event defied CDC recommendations on outdoor activities, and occurred in a county where cases were deemed “very high” and increased 90 percent in the week of the concert. A few days later, the lead singer and bassist tested positive for COVID-19.

The evidence is highly suggestive, but certainly not conclusive. Perhaps acts like KISS and venues like Waterfront Concerts might learn from artists like country music’s Jason Isbell, who requires vaccination to attend his concerts. “The right thing is to try to keep people safe,” Isbell told Rolling Stone.